Terrace Club Blues

Tag: Ms

  • Pinch Hit At Bat #1 

    Pinch Hit At Bat #1 

    It’s not having what you want, it’s wanting what you’ve got: In Defense of Julio—

    When my brother first shared that he was going to write about the M’s this year, naturally, my first thought was, “I’m so proud that my little brother is pouring his time and talent into something that we both love.” 

    Okay, okay, okay. That wasn’t my first thought (but I swear it was one of the first).  As someone who played in a bunch of those games he was forced to watch when we were kids, someone who LOVES baseball, and someone who tends to think the glass is half full, I love the idea of not-so-negative Mariners takes. So my honest first thought was, “I can’t wait to pinch hit.”

    Serendipitously, the topic for my first appearance presented itself to me a few days before I found out it was my time to write. In one day, I watched, read, and heard three separate Julio takes that I didn’t like. Three not-so-positive Julio takes. 

    Julio’s Contract

    A midday texter on Bump and Stacy (as a core millennial, I love the radio) said Julio’s contract is bad, an opinion I know is shared by others in the Mariners fandom. I completely disagree! 

    I think people balk when they hear the big number; Julio could earn up to $470 million over the course of his deal. But really, his deal is soooooo team friendly. His base annual average value (AAV) is just under $17.5 million which is only the 76th highest AAV in the MLB. A few guys with higher AAV than Julio: 

    – Wilson Contreras (STL)

    – Jung Hoo Lee (SF)

    – Trevor Story (BOS)

    Nothing against any of those guys, all of whom are at different parts of their career and are or were good to great players. My point is that in base salary, Julio is making Jung Hoo Lee money, not Mookie Betts money. The only way Julio gets into the $30 million per year range is if he is consistently making All-Star games and finishing high in MVP voting, at which point we certainly don’t need to have this conversation. 

    Another way to look at it, Julio’s 162 game average WAR is 6.1 according to Baseball Reference (his IRL average over the course of his first 3 seasons is 5.3). Dollar per WAR numbers have been all over the place in the last handfull of years, but data suggests it comes in somewhere between $4.6 million and $9.3 million per projected WAR. Let’s take the midpoint at call it $7 million per WAR per season. That means per 162 games Julio is worth ~$42 million per year. If we use his actual average, that still says he has been worth ~$37 million per year so far. Oh, also he plays in one of the worst hitters parks in baseball and he is 24 years old. 24! 

    And because I love a reference point, here are a few other guys and their 162 game average WAR: 

    – Ronald Acuna Jr. (5.8)

    – Luis Robert Jr. (4.6)

    – Juan Soto (6.2) 

    – Kyle Tucker (5.9)

    – Fernando Tatis Jr. (6.8)

    I know that WAR isn’t the be all end all of comparing players, but it is one of the better, holistic stats we have to see how a player compares to their peers, and this comparison makes Julio look like a bargain.  

    Lastly, because I earn my keep by thinking about politics, policy, and the economy, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention inflation and the time value of money. To oversimplify, a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow, and because Julio signed a 12-year extension, that means Julio is essentially getting paid 2022 wages in 2032. If inflation for the next seven years is the same as it was the last seven years, Julio’s $17.5 million in 2032 will only be worth around $14 million in today’s dollars, making him even more of a bargain. In 2032 Julio will be 31.  

    Julio’s Profile 

    This Reddit post got me thinking about Julio’s profile as a hitter. This post wasn’t necessarily negative, but it wasn’t positive (he hit much better since this post), and then this post popped up on Sunday, suggesting that Julio “isn’t him” — which is certainly negative. My take on all of this is that y’all are thinking too hard about it! 

    I am not anti-analytics; I’m a data guy. I love all of the data and information we have access to in 2025 (both in baseball and in everything else), but one thing that easy access to data does is make everyone think they are an expert (I know I just made an argument about 162 game average WAR which makes me a little bit of a hypocrite, but stay with me). I think Julio’s “profile” is less complicated if you get out of the data and remember that this is a game where one guy throws the ball and another guy hits the ball. 

    I think the reason that Julio’s profile over the years is so confusing is because he’s been constantly tinkering with both his swing and his approach, which has resulted in some weird patterns in in the advanced data. The thing is, Julio is a vibes guy, an elite athlete who is at his best when he isn’t thinking too much. 21-year old, electric factory, good vibes only Julio is peak Julio. The dude plays best when he isn’t thinking too much, and I think the Dan Wilson regime is pushing him in that direction. 

    Everyone, including those two Reddit posters, is pointing to the advanced stats to tell me what is wrong with Julio. My eyes tell me that he is a dude with elite bat speed and bad swing decision who is a little late a little too often. But the fact that Dan and Edgar appear to be leaning in to who Julio is as a player is a good sign. They are encouraging him to let it eat early in the count and I think that is a good thing. I want Julio taking hacks at pitches in the zone, whenever possible. 

    If there is one thing I’d love to see from Julio, it would be to learn from his fellow countryman Fernando Tatis Jr. this year during WBC play and mess around with a toe stride. If you look at Tatis’ swing from 2024 to 2025 you can see that he took away the leg kick in favor of setting his foot on the ground before the pticher releases — it helps you be early and I think Julio has plenty of bat speed to compensate for the shorter stride.   

    Who you got? 

    Instagram showed me a video of someone saying they would take Pete Crow-Armstrong over Julio if they started a team today. Which is, of course, a very fair take given that PCA is playing out of his mind right now. However, the take was delivered like it wasn’t EVEN A QUESTION, and I saw people in the comments who claim to be M’s fans that agreed! WHAT?! That’s our guy.  

    I think our collective expectations as a fanbase have gotten in the way of appreciating our guy. A guy who wants to be here. Think about it, he’s a home-grown hitter who signed a 12-year contract to play half of his games for his peak production years in MLB’s worst offensive park when he was 22. So many of our great athletes in Seattle have asked to leave: A-Rod, Junior, Russel Wilson. Shit so many of our good athletes have asked to leave: DK, Geno, Jewel Lloyd.

    My point is–and I say this with all due respect to Ichiro, Edgar, Sub Bird, Marshawn, Clint Dempsey, GP, Gus Williams, and anyone else who put on for Seattle–I think Julio still has a chance to be the greatest athlete in Seattle sports history. 

    Imagine if Julio goes on one of his absolutely nuclear heaters in September… or OCTOBER. He has that shit in him, and if he does, or even comes close, and the M’s win a World Series Julio goes to the top of the list. And yes, I know, this is Cal’s team, but I promise there is enough room for both of them at the top. We get so caught up looking around the league, making comparisons, that we forget to enjoy what is right in front of us. Even if he doesn’t ever maximize his potential (because of trash ownership, or injuries, or bad luck, or whatever), I’m going to soak up the sun and enjoy one of the most fun, good-spirited, dynamic athletes we’ve ever seen in the PNW. 

    -DB 

    **Editors note: thank you so much for doing this bro— I love, learn from, and appreciate you everyday – NJB**

  • Between the Rock and a Bryce Place

    Between the Rock and a Bryce Place

    Welcome to Terrace Club Blues, and the First Off-Day of the Season (3-4)

    In the weeks leading up to opening day I internally debated whether or not I was going to try and write about the 2025 Mariners.

    As a South Puget Sound native born in ‘97, who played/watched way more baseball in the first 12 years of a kid’s life than should be legally allowed, who was forced to watch the broadcasted demolition of the Kingdome (for, idk, sentimental reasons?), and who occasionally takes pride in being okay at communicating with words— the prospect seemed all-too-teed up. Baseball, specifically Mariners baseball, and writing, specifically creative writing, is my comfort corner.

    But, like any reasonable 28-year-old who is also trying to be a present friend, boyfriend, employee, etc. and who doesn’t think they are the center of the universe, the questions of “would this really be worth my time?”, and “why would anyone care to read words I write about baseball?” kept me close to the bag— and ultimately, I decided not to write about the team this year. After all, I have a demanding day job I care about deeply that brings me a different kind of comfort, and in exchange keeps me away from home and off streaming services for long hours and requires me to miss almost every Saturday and Sunday game.

    Err— rather, I did have a demanding day job that does those things.

    I was laid-off from my dream gig last week unexpectedly. So for now— when I philosophize about “what my time is worth”, or “what people think about my work” I really, really couldn’t give a fuck. But, as cheese-bally as it sounds, impending misery and all, I do give a fuck about the Mariners— even when sometimes I really wish I didn’t.

    In that spirit I’ve decided to let it rip this season and I hope anyone who graciously reads along can find some bits of comfort in this as much as I do.

    Okay, so what the hell is going on??

    I guess we kinda know what is going on. Don’t we?

    Gray-haired-man, Jerry, Justin & the gang decided to “run it back” with basically the same exact team in ‘25 as in ‘24. The same team that nearly struck out more times in a season than any team has in the history of baseball. The same team that consistently struggled to put more than 2 runs on the scoreboard night in and night out (sans the wildly hot hair-up-their ass the club seems to get every August). The same team that spins it with the best of them and serves up quality starts like the team literally depends on such a fickle, baseball-y, made-up stat for any chance to dance after 9 (sorry Logan).

    We knew the writing was on the wall the whole time, so the disappointingly anemic start to 2025, on the heels of a frigidly uneventful winter, comes as no surprise to any of us. Yet that doesn’t really make it hurt any less. I would go as far to say, sometimes when you know something is coming, it makes it feel even worse when the shoe eventually drops. But baseball is weird, and in a 162 game season there are a lot of shoes. As lame as it is— I have to mirror J at J’s Trident’s (an inspiration of mine, good job man) sentiment that we have to give it a month before absolutely turning our hopes out to pasture. 

    We can come to some conclusions, like how Rowdy Tellez isn’t going to be our DH answer, or that Emerson Hancock is what we all thought he was, a very fringe big league pitcher who’s capable of having a few good starts in the show every now and then. But we can’t lose all hope yet. We can keep our expectations low— we can assume this is going to be another Mariner’s team who is decent enough to stay in the hunt but not good enough to win the division, but we can’t and shouldn’t lose all hope yet. If we’re 9-19 after April, I’ll eat my bat tape and do some soul-searching, but for now, we have to resist the urge to be Reddit degenerates (yes, I know it’s “fun” and that “it’s not that serious bro”). The communal agony is appreciated, the unaccountable and anonymous nihilism makes me want to yell at clouds.

    Anyway, it was nice to scrape a win against Skubal yesterday. That doesn’t make up for the less-than-mediocre offensive performance we’ve seen, but it’s a consolation that I will take anytime. So after 7 games, and an underwhelming opening homestand here are a few brief thoughts and one central take.

    1. Gabe Speier looks great. Will be huge for us if he can continue to be nails until Brash is cleared and healthy. If he can consistently put up good numbers against righties, he could be a legitimate set-up man for the time being and an important piece throughout the season regardless.

    2. Tellez, Garver & Bliss look lost at the plate. I mean, I could put a lot of guys on this list, but their at bats look the worst to me. At Least Bliss is playing serviceable defense in the meantime, and I have a (very small) sliver of hope that Garver can turn it around, but other than that— it doesn’t look good.

    3. Muney, that sweet, sweet, adorable, sicko. We know what kind of Muney we’re getting that day after 2 pitches. Sometimes his control is just not there at all. Somehow, despite any shakiness, his stuff is just so off the charts nasty that he can houdini it on any given night. I love Muney, he might be my favorite M, and his cat is so adorably ugly, so I’ll probably talk about him alot, but man does he scare the absolute shit out of me.

    One Central Take:

    It’s not exactly the anemic offense in itself that is the most frustrating thing to suffer through when watching the 2025 Mariners so far— it’s the optics of watching the anemic offense struggle so badly. If I didn’t happen to watch every game and only checked the box score, I’d think “hmm, they are having a really hard time at the plate and pitching is keeping them in games”. But when you actually see the at bats they just look terrible. It’s an awful product to watch so far. If I was Nintendo, I’d be trying to get my patch deal back, because nobody can even begin to perceive the un-welcomed, red eyesores when such obviously terrible approaches are searing blindspots into all of our retinas.

    But I mean it when I say a month. In the meantime, let’s talk soon.

    Cheers,

    Noah